December 2010

A Lot Has Happened

Well since my last post last week regarding rumours that Carlos Pena was a target of the Blue Jays, a lot has happened.

First, Pena signed with the Cubs.  Again, I wasn’t thrilled with the idea of Pena but he would have been a big upgrade over Lyle Overbay.  However, since then the Jays signed a familiar face in Edwin Encarnacion today as a DH/1B option.  I would have definitely preferred Pena and possibly Overbay to Encarnacion but more on that later in this post.
The two big moves were Carl Crawford signing with the Red Sox and Cliff Lee signing with the Phillies. Crawford to the Red Sox was not a huge surprise on its own but when you consider the Red Sox made a splash just days earlier with the trade for Adrian Gonzalez it was a bit of one.  Either way the Red Sox look incredibly strong heading into 2011 as it stands now.  Once the Crawford move went down, everyone’s eyes turned to Cliff Lee and the New York Yankees.  Personally, I thought it was just a matter of time before we saw Lee sign with the Yankees. They would offer more years and more money just because they could and I thought Lee wouldn’t be able to turn it down.  
I also thought, like many, that if for some reason the Yankees didn’t sign Lee, it would be the Texas Rangers. The Nationals were also interested but I didn’t think they were ever considered by the Lee camp. What I did not figure on was the Phillies coming in, after dealing Lee just a year earlier to make payroll room to sign Roy Halladay, and making an offer worth $30M less than what was offered by Yankees and Lee accepting! 
I was overjoyed by this news.  Not really for the Phillies getting Lee but because the Yankees did not get Lee.  To be honest, even with Lee, I thought the Red Sox would still have an upper hand on the Yankees (barring any other moves) in 2011.  I just think their lineup is now superior to the Yankees with the Yankees having to pay big money to aging stars like Jeter and Posada and the Red Sox pitching will be improved this year with Beckett and Lackey returning to their former selves or at least bouncing back a little from 2010.  However, the Yankees are not finished and they’ll make a big splash before April or they’ll pry a front line starter from a smaller market team sometime mid-season.  
There was an interesting column in the Toronto Star this morning by Richard Griffin with regard to how teams sometimes play obstructionists in other teams dealings to prevent rivals from getting players. For instance, it was postulated that the Blue Jays were willing to deal Marcum to the Brewers to keep the Brewers from pursuing Zack Greinke from the Royals of whom the Blue Jays are also interested in.  In this same vein, it is rumoured that the Red Sox indicated to the Phillies that they are willing to take on Joe Blanton’s salary which led to the Phillies being able to sign Cliff Lee, keeping Lee away from the Yankees.  It will be interesting to see if, in the coming weeks, we see Blanton head to the Red Sox.  Given the Red Sox probably rotation of Lester, Beckett, Lackey, Buchholz and Matsusaka (and Wakefield in the pen), I don’t see where Blanton fits.  This seems a little far fetched if you ask me but that still doesn’t take away from the point Griffin makes in his column.  
From a Blue Jays perspective, Lee signing outside the division was good news but other news that the Yankees signing Russell Martin wasn’t great news.  It was rumoured that the Jays were interested in Martin as a 3B/1B/DH/C option.  However, he went to the Yankees.  
Now it was known that the Blue Jays were looking at having Adam Lind as their primary first baseman in 2011 and looking to sign a player who could DH and also play first base to either spell Lind or swap places with Lind if he is unable to adapt to the new position.  So who did this player end up being? None other than Edwin Encarnacion.  Now Encarnacion is known as “EncarCRAPcion” in some circles…well…my circle mostly as I watched him repeatedly air mail balls into the seats from third base the past two seasons.  I was happy to see the A’s claim him on waivers and thinking he was gone from my life.  However, they non-tendered him and now Jays fans will find him back in the line-up in 2011.  At least it won’t be at third base! 
Encarnacion does have some pop so he’s not a horrible solution as a DH.  He had some health problems in 2010 and fell out of favour for awhile after not running out some ground balls and of course the defensive lapses at third. He was even designated for assignment but then was called back up when it was determined that Jarred Hoffpauer was not an everyday solution.  Some friends of mine just asked why they wouldn’t just re-sign Overbay as at least Overbay was strong defensively and has a comparable bat to Encarnacion.  Well from what I hear Overbay wanted to be an everyday first baseman, which he wouldn’t have been in Toronto, and got his opportunity in Pittsburgh.  Now one can argue whether the Pirates are actually a major league team but that’s a subject for another blog post!
So with Encarnacion and barring any other moves, here is the Jays projected opening day starting lineup.
1. Davis LF
2. Escobar SS
3. Wells CF
4. Bautista 3B
5. Lind 1B
6  Encarnacion DH
7. Snider RF
8. Hill 2B
9. Arencibia C
Now to be honest, I don’t know how the order will shake out and could very well look quite different than what I listed above but those are the nine starters you would see as of now.
However, Jose Bautista has expressed his preference to play right field over third base so whether the team complies with this wish or not is the big question.  If Bautista is to play right field then two “problems” arise. One is who will play third base? The other is where will Davis play? Would he platoon with Snider or be used simply as the fourth outfielder.  I have no issue with Davis as the fourth outfielder but if he’s not in the line-up do you bat Escobar lead-off and move Hill back to second in the order? 
Who knows? I have a feeling that Mr. Anthopolous has, as he calls it, some irons in the fire still and we’ll see how it shakes out. Perhaps Snider is on his way out of town in a deal for Greinke? Perhaps an everyday third baseman will become available.  Who knows?

Carlos Pena

ESPN is now reporting that the Blue Jays are pursuing free agent first baseman, Carlos Pena.  I’m not a huge fan of Pena’s but he does drive in runs and gives the Jays some pop at first base which would be a nice change! However, Pena gets lost at the plate for long stretches of time and doesn’t hit for average. 

What I like about the possibility of Pena becoming a Blue Jay?

His power

Knows what it takes to succeed in the AL East

He has been to the playoffs

His name isn’t Lyle Overbay

We’ll see if there is any truth to the rumours soon enough.

Marcum

Shaun Marcum was one of my favourite Blue Jays.  He threw strikes, he battled, he is a gold glove calibre defender (was a shortstop in college) and a leader in the clubhouse.  So needless to say, it’s tough to see him go.  Thanks for everything Shaun and all the best in Milwaukee.

That being said, I like this deal.  In return, the Blue Jays get the Brewers’ top prospect, Brett Lawrie.  Lawrie, a Canadian, is a second baseman but the Fan 590′s Mike Wilner reports that the Jays see him more as a third baseman.  Baseball America notes his defence at second is suspect and that he projects to a possible corner outfield slot. He’ll play 2011 in Triple A Las Vegas but could be in the Jays line-up come 2012. So another high level prospect to add to the system to accompany Drabek, D’Arnaud, Hechevarria, Gose, McGuire etc.

Giving up Marcum will hurt in 2011 but as Shaun Marcum himself will admit, he doesn’t have the  greatest stuff. He has a below average fastball (tops out at 87 mph) but makes up for it with an above average change-up.  He’ll be 29 years old next week and would be a free agent following the 2012 season.  Do I think the Jays were actively shopping him? No.  What I think is that the Brewers needed pitching and the Jays had their eye on Lawrie and it was going to cost them Marcum to get him.  Of their starting rotation, the Jays were not going to give up Morrow, Romero or Cecil and I doubt they would get much of anything in return for either Litsch or Rzepcynski so Marcum was the player to go.  So unless the Blue Jays aren’t done dealing the starting rotation looks something like this:

Romero

Morrow

Cecil

Drabek

Litsch or Rzepcynski

There were rumours floating around that the Blue Jays were interested in acquiring Zack Greinke from Kansas City but the reported asking price was Travis Snider and Kyle Drabek. That’s a steep price for Greinke and doesn’t seem consistent with Alex Anthopolous’ vision for making this team a perennial contender.  Buster Olney of ESPN “tweeted” today that the opinion among GMs around MLB is that Kansas City will start with a steep asking price for Greinke and gradually lessen their demands until they get a ‘yes’ from someone.  They believe that Greinke will be dealt this winter. 

And how about that Jason Werth deal with the Nationals! WOW! I couldn’t believe that news when I heard about it yesterday.  To me this is going to be a huge mistake for Washington.  That’s a lot of dollars and a lot of years for Jason Werth.  There is no way he’s going to live up to that contract. Maybe he should have given Vernon Wells a call before signing this deal.  I forsee many years of Mr. Werth getting blamed for tying up a large chunk of the Nationals’ payroll and under performing!

I’m anxious to hear all the rumours coming out of the Winter Meetings. Hopefully there will be some more trades of significance and some interesting free agent signings to discuss.

Until then, I bid you adieu!

 

 

 

Villanueva

Just a quick note on the Blue Jays trading for Carlos Villanueva. Given that they’re giving up a ‘player to be named later’ you can’t really beat that deal. There are a few holes in the bullpen with the probable departures of Scott Downs and Kevin Gregg plus the actual departure of Brian Tallet (thank heavens!).

To me, the easiest area to improve a ball club through trades and free agency is a bullpen. Sure you’re hard pressed to find a quality closer on the free agent market for cheap but mid-relievers and late inning set-up guys are easier to find for reasonable prices.

I was really hoping I wouldn’t see Jason Frasor back but if he pitches in a limited role, he can be effective.  He can always get two outs, the third one always seems to be the problem!

 

Jeter

As news pours in on the Yankees nearing a deal with Derek Jeter, I realized part of me had hoped that negotiations broke down and Jeter signed with another team.  It would be interesting to see what he’d do in a line-up where he didn’t have as much protection behind him in the order. It would also be interesting to see how the national media and New York media viewed his performance with him not wearing pinstripes.  Probably not as favourably…but that’s just a guess.

Then I sat and thought about it, and this is a good thing. One, Jeter deserves to finish his career as a Yankee. Although I can’t stand the Yankees, it’s nice to see players that have accomplished so much in one uniform, stay in that uniform their whole career.  Second, Jeter is going downhill and although he might bounce back and have a decent 2011 season, 2012 and 2013 probably won’t be so pretty.  As a Blue Jays fan, there is nothing I’d like to see more than an aging Jeter patrolling shortstop for the Yankees. With E-Rod on third, the left side of the infield could be like swiss cheese in a few years (lots of holes).  At least this is what I’m hoping!

Look Derek Jeter is a good player, and at one time was a great player.  He has the World Series rings to prove it.  However, he has been built up by fans and the media as an icon at shortstop. He’s not. He has been fortunate to play in New York his whole career and been surrounded by other great players. You put him on a another team in another lineup and yes he’s a good/great shortstop but not THE Derek Jeter we know today.  Nothing against the guy (although he is one of my most hated players) but he is who he is today because of his talent but also because he’s been in the spotlight his whole career wearing pinstripes. Admittedly it takes a special player to perform in the biggest baseball market in the world.  It’s a mutually beneficial relationship. Each (Jeter and the Yankees) make the other one better.

 

 

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