February 2011
Zach Stewart – Looking Good
Ken Lott of the National Post has an interesting article on Zach Stewart in today’s National Post.
A thank you to April Whitzman, a fellow Jays fan and blogger, for bringing Mr Lott’s article to my attention. April can be found at http://jaysprospects.com/ or on Twitter: @Alleycat17
Back to Mr. Stewart. Zach is turning some heads in camp and after two stand-out innings in the Jays’ intersquad game yesterday has put himself firmly in the picture for a starting rotation spot.
It’s not like Zach Stewart has come out of nowhere. He was the key player the Jays received as part of the Scott Rolen trade in 2009. He has a great arm but it wasn’t clear if he’d end up being a starter or a late-inning reliever/closer but after a great year in 2010 in New Hampshire as a starter a rotation spot appears to be in his future. Alex Anthopolous noted late last season that Zach Stewart matched-up favourably to Kyle Drabek so it’s clear the Blue Jays think Stewart is close to being ready for the big leagues.
Now it has been well documented that the Blue Jays have two open spots in their rotation after Romero, Cecil and Morrow. The fourth spot is apparently Kyle Drabek’s for the taking and many believe after three solid starts last September that Drabek is virtually a lock for this spot. Assuming this is true that leaves one rotation spot open for one of Zach Stewart, Jesse Litsch, Mark Rzepczynski or Jo-Jo Reyes.
My thinking is that a solid spring from Litsch would land him the job given his experience at the big league level. That being said, Reyes is out of options so he’s going to get an extra long look as a possible starter or for a spot in the bullpen. Rzepczynski looked great in 2009 and struggled a bit in 2010 but has also shown he can get big league hitters out so he’s also a possible fifth starter or fit in the bullpen in long relief. Odds are that Stewart starts the year in AAA Las Vegas unless he completely dominates this spring unless Drabek and Litsch really struggle and he significantly outperforms Rzepczynski and Reyes. Of course any trade or injury to any of these arms could open the door for Stewart as well.
What is clear however, is that in 2011 more that five pitchers will start for the Blue Jays over the course of the season. Injuries occur, pitchers struggle, the odd double-header happens where starts become available and then of course there are expanded rosters in September where a team out of the playoff race can give a pitcher 2-4 starts to see where they’re at. Barring injury, I think it’s virtually a lock that we’ll see Stewart on the mound for the Blue Jays in 2011.
The Trials of Spring Training
The excitement over the start of Spring Training is still lingering but we really need some games to start. Pitchers and Catchers have reported, and now the position players are in camp. There are nice stories coming out on new contracts (Bautista), top prospects experiencing their first spring training (Hechevarria) or with the Blue Jays (Lawrie, Gose), John Farrell at the helm for his first Spring Training and players adapting to new roles and fighting for roster spots.
Interesting Twitter Exchange Between Ricky Romero and Vernon Wells
5 Years – $65M???
The news broke last night that the Blue Jays had reached agreement on a five-year, $65M contract with Jose Bautista. Although, it hasn’t been formally announced yet, given that multiple sources are reporting this, it’s likely a done deal. It is expected to be announced sometime today (Thursday).
I’m not sure what to think about this deal. It’s risky that is for sure. I was hoping the Blue Jays would aim for a 3 to 4 year deal for about $10 to $12M per year but five years. The $13M per year is on the higher end of the spectrum but it’s not Jason Werth money thank goodness. It’s in the neighbourhood of Dan Uggla’s deal with the Braves and that appeared to be the benchmark that both sides were working from. Uggla, of course, has a larger body of work to judge his value from than Mr. Bautista but is definitely not paid for his glove. Jose Bautista is a fine defender with a plus arm who can play several positions well.
As I mentioned in a previous post, if Bautista hits near the mid-point between his previous career high of 16 homeruns or his 2010 total of 54 homeruns (about 35HRs) and drive in 100+ RBI’s a year, this deal will turn out to be a relative bargain for the Blue Jays. He’s not getting Vernon Wells money and he is certainly nowhere close to getting Jason Werth money ($126M over seven years).
It’s a risky deal but it’s not going to break the bank for the Blue Jays. Not only did Bautista have a break out year in 2010, he emerged as a clubhouse and on-field leader and was superb defensively. I personally think he’s better in right field than third base but given the Jays’ depth in the outfield, and lack thereof at third until Mr. Lawrie is ready for the show, he is best positioned to help the team in 2011 at third.
My biggest fear is that Jose tries too hard to live up to the contract and pushes too hard and ends up struggling at the dish. That will bring out all of the negative Nancys and boo-birds at the Rogers Centre and stir up more talk about PEDs. The PED talk is nonsense if you ask me. One, he’s not a big guy and his appearance didn’t change from one year to the next. Second, if he was able to use PEDs last season and not get caught, then why would he not continue to do so in 2011 and put up the same numbers?
Regardless it will be an interesting 2011. The Jays’ lineup has the potential to be a very potent one if Adam Lind and Aaron Hill bounce back from a rough 2010, Bautista produces and Travis Snider is able to have a breakout season. J.P. Arencibia will be interesting to watch. He has the potential to put up numbers in the neighbourhood of John Buck’s last year but as a rookie, he may also struggle while he faces major league pitching and tries to manage a young pitching staff.
Scott Posednik
The Blue Jays signed Scott Posednik to a minor-league contract today. It was interesting that the Toronto Star article by the misinformed Mark Zwolinski mentioned Posednik yesterday as being a free agent but a possible lead-off hitter for the Jays.
I don’t see Posednik as being a starter for the Blue Jays. I see him as, at best, a fourth outfielder and speed off the bench. Similar to the Joey Gathright signing last year, I see this as Anthopolous seeing of Posednik can fit into the mix and see if he’s a better fit than say a Corey Patterson to make the squad. He provides another option if say Travis Snider or Rajai Davis struggles. At the end of the day, the Jays could just be giving Posednik an invite to Spring Training so that he can market his skills to other teams in hopes of catching on somewhere else. Either way, no harm in giving Posednik deal.
Authors Note:
Since posting this yesterday, I’ve been able to do some reading and more thinking around this signing. One glaring oversight on my part was to not note that Posednik bats from the left side. Also with four bench spots the Jays could conceivably keep Posednik and Patterson but would need to open up two spots on their 40-man roster. Ideally, the Blue Jays will be able to find a taker for Juan Rivera, and work with Snider, Patterson, Davis and Posednik in the outfield.
A Nice Story…
This story appeared in today’s Globe and Mail. Johnny Mac proves again what a great guy he is…
It’s All About Sharing The Risk
News came out yesterday that the Blue Jays had postponed the arbitration hearing with Jose Bautista in order to continue to negotiate on a long-term contract with the slugger.
Bautista and his agent notified the Blue Jays late last week that he would not negotiate a new contract after the date of the arbitration hearing. This seemed to spur the Blue Jays into action as now both sides appear to be actively working to get a deal done.
To me this is all about sharing risk. Until last season, as we all know, Jose Bautista was a part-time player who had never hit more than 16 homeruns in a season. Last season he exploded for 54 homeruns. What does 2011 and the future have in store for Jose Bautista? Who knows? There is the uncertainty and the source of risk.
At the one end of the spectrum, 2010 could have been a fluke season where everything went right, he got in a groove and the ball flew out of the park. 2011 could be a return to his previous form with pitchers adjusting their approach to Bautista and the loss of Vernon Wells in the lineup as protection. At the other end, 2011 could be a repeat of 2010 with Bautista hitting another 45-55 homeruns and drive in well over 100 runs.
From Jose Bautista’s perspective, you would think he’d want to lock into a long-term deal this year rather than wait until free agency. Given he has never put up numbers that were even close his production in 2010, the likelihood of him topping a season like that in 2011 are relatively low. Also, the risk of him returning to his previous levels of production given that there will be more pressure on him in 2011 and pitchers will be focussed on him and trying to pitch around him if possible, is signficant. If he gets a one-year contract through arbitration, he bears all of this downside risk. That being said, if he puts up a productive season with 35+ homeruns and 100+ RBI, he’ll reap the rewards next off season as a free agent and thus keeps all the upside potential.
From the Blue Jays perspective, the opposite holds true. A one-year arbitration award, limits the team’s risk of 2010 being an aberration and Bautista returning to his old level of production. If this occurred, they could simply let Jose walk as a free agent or try to re-sign him at a reduced salary. However, if Bautista produces, he becomes a free agent and either the Blue Jays either have to pay market value on a long-term deal to retain him, trade him if it becomes clear he does not want to re-sign with Toronto or lose the heart of their line-up to free agency with nothing in return besides a draft pick.
I think it makes sense for both sides to sign a long-term deal now. Bautista can get the security of a 4-5 year contract in the neighbourhood of $10-$14M a year (this is just me guessing as to what he’d accept) in exchange for possibly losing out on top free agent dollars if he has a solid 2011 season. A long-term deal for the Blue Jays exposes them to the risk of 2010 being a fluke and getting locked into a long-term deal with another player who does not live up to expectations (see Vernon Wells, Alex Rios) but also gives the team some upside by possibly locking up Bautista for the long-term at below market value if he does continue to produce at or near the level of 2010.
To me, the Blue Jays and hitting coach Dwayne Murphy should know better than anybody what adjustments Bautista made in 2010 to turn his career around. Also they should know what type of clubhouse presence/leader Bautista is and make a reasonable forecast of how he’ll perform in the next few seasons.
From my perspective, although I’m nervous about this whole situation, I think signing Bautista to a long-term deal at this time makes the most sense. One, he’s not a one dimensional player. He has a plus arm, can play multiple positions, has decent speed, is an intelligent player and, as he showed in the last month of 2009 and throughout 2010 has a lot of power. So if he does tank at the plate in 2011 the Jays would be paying more than he’s worth but at least the player can contribute in other ways. As I mentioned above, if he continues to rake in 2011, the Jays get to pay him at what will turn out to be below market value and not risk losing him at the end of this year. Of course I’m gun shy on this one given the Jays recent history with inking players to long-term contracts but then again, I don’t have to pay Bautista’s salary.
On a final note, what the heck is Mark Zwolinski of the Toronto Star thinking? In today’s Star he write a column about the on-going negotiations between Bautista and the Jays but then at the end of the column he blows all his credibility by stating that:
1. Bautista is slated to play right field in 2011 (in reality, he’s pegged for 3B)
2. Encarnacion was re-signed to play third base (in reality, he’s pegged for DH/1B) and Juan Rivera acquired to play 1B (in reality, Lind is slated to play 1B with Rivera in right)
3. He makes a strange point that Scott Posednik is still available and that he’s more experienced as a lead-off hitter and base stealer than Rajai Davis (so the Jays should sign Posednik? That would give the Jays Rivera, Davis, Snider, Posednik in addition to supposed right fielder Bautista)
4. Maintains that despite any possible roster moves in the next few weeks, the Jays priority will be to keep Bautista in RF (this could be true if Bautista was actually slated to play right but everything being said thus far is that he’s slated to play 3B on opening day barring any moves to acquire an actual 3B not named Encarnacion)
Zwolinski’s article in the Toronto Star 02/15/11
It’s almost offensive to Blue Jays fans that this was even published. Clearly Zwolinski has not done his homework or been paying any attention to what has been going on this offseason. I hope the Star didn’t send him to Dunedin with Richard Griffin as he’d likely spend more time golfing than actually reporting on what is going on with the team.
My heart’s a flutter on this February 14th
Thump thump. Thump thump. Thump thump thump. Yes it’s getting faster. That’s my heart speeding up today. There is just something about this day, February 14th, 2011 that is getting my heart going.
My wife this morning mentioned something to me about a Valentine’s Day and love which then got me thinking about love and what I love, then it hit me. SPRING TRAINING STARTS TODAY!!!! Valentine’s Day, Schmalentine’s Day, baseball is back.
Pitchers and catchers officially report to camp today. In Dunedin, many of the Blue Jays have been congregating in camp for a couple of weeks getting their workouts in. That means only about six weeks until Opening Day. That is fantastic news. I can’t wait to see baseball highlights again on Sportscentre, reading the media articles on how the Jays’ starting rotation is shaping up, who’s battling for bullpen jobs, how Adam Lind is adjusting to first base and how some of the Jays’ top prospects are progressing in camp.
I haven’t posted since December after trying to digest the trading of Shaun Marcum and wondering what was going to be done to fill some of the bullpen vacancies. A LOT has happened since then in Blue Jays land. The most compelling story was the ability of Alex Anthopolous to trade Vernon Wells and his monster contract to the Angels. I’m not going to go on at length about this transaction as much has been said and written about it. All I will say is that I think it was a no-brainer and the Jays had to make this deal. What surprised me the most was to see that some fans (a minority mind you) in the comment sections of some of the on-line articles on the transaction actually thought it was a bad move. Again, it was a no-brainer.
We still don’t know how the bullpen is going to be composed but instead of being concerned with vacancies, we’re wondering who are the pitchers that are going to be the odd men out. I think at this time the closer job is Frank Francisco’s to lose. Set-up men are likely going to be John Rauch and Octavio Dotel. David Purcey and Jason Frasor could also figure into the mix for some late-inning work. Shaun Camp is a lock for a spot so that already is six spots accounted for and I have yet to address Casey Janssen, Scott Richmond, Jo-Jo Reyes, Jesse Carlson, Carlos Villenueva, and Mark Rzepczynski. The long-relief role will likely be filled by either Richmond or Rzepczynski assuming neither of them figure into the starting rotation. My bet is on Rzepczynski filling this role with Richmond beginning the year in Las Vegas. So there is one or two spots (if the Jays decide to carry 13 pitchers instead of 12). I read that Reyes is out of options (as is David Purcey) so that could be a consideration that would keep Reyes at the big-league level. That could mean Villenueva, Janssen and Carlson are the odd men out. I personally like Carlson and would love to see him have a great spring and catch on with the big club.
As for the starting rotation, I think any rotation other than Romero, Morrow, Cecil, Litsch and Drabek would be a surprise but only time will tell. I don’t see Scott Richmond figuring into the rotation but the organization seems to like Rzepczynski so it’s not out of the question for him to be in the mix for the fourth or fifth spot in the rotation if Litsch falters and it’s determined Drabek needs some additional seasoning in AAA.
The line-up, barring any other trades is fairly set I think. The infield should shake out as follows:
C Arencibia
1B Lind
2B Hill
3B Bautista
SS Escobar
The outfield should be Snider, Davis and Rivera and Encarnacion will be the DH. Bench spots should go to Molina (C), MacDonald (IF) and possibly Corey Patterson (OF). I don’t see much else that could occur other than someone like a Mike McCoy slotting into the fourth outfielder mix instead of Patterson. Either that or they Jays will carry four bench players (going with a standard 7 man bullpen instead of 8) and in that case McCoy and Patterson could both fit.
Of course the spring usually brings a surprise or two and players play their way onto the team. I think this is a bigger possibility on the pitching front with guys like Brad Mills, Josh Roenicke, and Robert Ray lurking around plus another top prospect Zach Stewart in the mix. However given the limited spots available in the bullpen, it will be an uphill battle for any of those mentioned in the previous sentence.
As far as this spring goes, I’m hoping for the following:
1. Dustin McGowan to get healthy and be an option for the rotation at some point in 2011
2. Adam Lind to prove he can be an everyday first baseman at the MLB level
3. Aaron Hill to get through Spring Training healthy and poised for a bounce back season
4. Kyle Drabek to remove any doubt he is ready for the bigs
That’s if for now!
OK_Blue_Jays
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