It is finally here!   I woke up this morning and by looking out my window here in Ottawa, you wouldn't know it was Opening Day.  It was snowing...again. 

Thankfully the Blue Jays are not opening their season in Ottawa but instead will be part of history in New York as they take part in the last Opening Day in Yankee Stadium. 

Pretty much everybody is picking the Blue Jays to finish third in the AL East this year with the Red Sox and Yankees finishing ahead of them...again.  My personal belief is that the Red Sox will finish ahead of the Blue Jays while the Blue Jays and Yankees will battle it out for second.  The Red Sox are the World Series Champs and their roster hasn't changed much from last season.  Sure they've lost Schilling probably for the entire season but if the rest of the roster remains healthy they should take the AL East.

Now the Yankees have a number of question marks.  To me their starting rotation could be very weak.  Chien Ming Wang is their ace and he'll be followed by veterans Mike Mussina and Andy Pettitte.  Last year Mussina struggled to stay in the starting rotation and Pettitte has trouble staying healthy and will miss at least his first start this season struggling with back spasms.  After Pettitte and Mussina, the Yankees will rely on youth with Phillip Hughes and Ian Kennedy rounding out the rotation.  Joba Chamberlain will likely be eased into the rotation at some point this season but for now he'll stay in the role he excelled at last season and set up Mariano Rivera.

The Yankees are still a very talented bunch and if their young starters step up and pitch well then they may indeed give the BoSox a run for the AL East title.  However, I just don't see it happening.  Not to say I don't think the Yankees will contend for a playoff spot, I just don't see them taking the East. I think they'll get off to a relatively slow start as they get adapted to a new manager and some roster changes before building steam after the All-Star break.

Now for the Blue Jays.  I do agree with the popular opinion out there that this is the most talented Blue Jays team in awhile.  However, this team has been unable to avoid injuries the past few seasons and this season looks to be no different.  The team has already lost Casey Janssen for the season with a torn labrum and new acquisition Scott Rolen for 4-6 weeks with a broken finger.  Today the news came out that Matt Stairs has a hip flexor problem and won't be in the lineup this afternoon. 

Health will be the main determinant in how well the team fares this season.  If their regulars stay healthy, then the team has the talent to contend.  After health, the team needs to produce some offense and I think a comeback season from Vernon Wells and the continued progress of Alex Rios will be the keys to success. 

The starting rotation was a pillar of strength last season.  I can't see the rotation being as strong this season as I think one of the trio of McGowan, Marcum or Litsch following staff ace Roy Halladay and AJ Burnett will struggle this year.  My bet is on McGowan.  Roy Halladay is consistently good and will likely put up anywhere from 16 to 20+ wins.  A.J. Burnett is always a question mark. The first question will be whether he stays healthy all season.  Very unlikely.  The second question is how he'll perform on the mound.  He can be lights out one start and terrible the next.  What drives me crazy about Burnett is that he has a great fastball and a great curve but refuses to incorporate the change up he has been working on the last two springs into his arsenal. 

The bullpen was also strong last season but relied heavily on three pitchers, Scott Downs, Casey Janssen and Jeremy Accardo.  I still think that even with the loss of Janssen, the bullpen will be strong this season.  The team gets  all-star closer, B.J. Ryan back in mid-April or early May which will then move Accardo into a set-up role. Brandon League appears to be back after a lost season last year and could be another late inning stalwart.  Middle relief chores will be handled by Jason Frasor, Brian Tallet, Brian Wolfe and Randy Wells to start the season.  One of these pitchers will have to be sent down once Ryan is ready to go.  That will likely be Wells.  It is an experienced middle relief core which should be able to keep the Jays in games if the starters falter.

The team seems to have a 'win now' attitude this year which is good considering that if they don't get off to a strong start, Manager John Gibbons will likely lose his job.  If the team has another mediocre season, JP Riccardi will likely be out of a job by season's end. 

The season starts out tough with series against the Yankees and the Red Sox.  The team has played both of these teams strong the past two seasons and I think it will be good starting off against divisional rivals to get the team in the right frame of mind and hopefully off to a solid start.  The key will be consistency this year.  Last year they played well against the Red Sox and Yankees but then dropped the ball against weaker teams.  They have to continue to play well against the Red Sox and Yankees but also against some of the weaker teams this season in order to contend. Winning two out of three games in a series is great but the team also needs to sweep series when they have the opportunity to. Their inabililty to sweep series last year drove me CRAZY!  I think the key to this is with the manager.  Too many times last season, John Gibbons would rest two or three of his starting lineup in the third game of the series and the team would lose.  Gibbons needs to find the right balance of when to rest his starters and going for the kill when the team has the opportunity. 

My prediction for the AL East this season:

1. Boston

2. Toronto

3. New York

4. Tampa Bay

5. Baltimore

Really I think the Yankees are the odds-on-favourite to finish second but I'm a Jays fan and half to be optimistic! 

I'll weigh in on my predictions for the other divisions in the AL and the NL later.  Can't wait for 1 p.m.!!!!

The release of Reed Johnson today was not a surprise.  Since the signing of Shannon Stewart at the start of spring training, it was clear that Reed's days as a Blue Jay were numbered. 

I liked Reed Johnson and loved his attitude and the way he played.  However, the team needs to open up a spot in their outfield for Adam Lind and eventually Travis Snyder.  Stewart is on a one-year contract and trying to re-establish himself after he found himself without a job before spring training before signing with the Jays.  After this year, it is likely he'll be packing his bags again looking for another team, making room on the roster for Adam Lind next season.  Eventually, Travis Snyder will be in the Jays outfield and Lind can either be traded or moved to another position.

Good news on the Ryan front, B.J. threw a bullpen session and said he 'felt good' so it looks like the discomfort he was experiencing last week is just part of the recovery process.  I expect not to see B.J. in the linuep until May. 

Happy Easter everyone!

After his last outing on Monday where he complained of soreness in his surgically repaired left elbow, it appears as if B.J. Ryan won't break camp with the Blue Jays.  The good news is that the team is reporting this soreness can be attributed to general fatigue and is not uncommon.  After last year when Ryan's "sore back" turned into a torn ligament requiring season ending surgery, I'm a little skeptical but with that being said, I was not expecting Ryan to be ready for Opening Day.  In fact, I'm actually comforted by the fact that Ryan won't be rushed back into the lineup. 

It was kind of funny to see the Jays get wrapped up in the whole ordeal surrounding the Red Sox and their coaches.  Their game against the Sox yesterday was delayed for over an hour while the Red Sox sorted out their issues with MLB over the lack of stipends for their coaches and trainers for their upcoming trip to Japan. Good for the Red Sox for standing up for their coaches and trainers.  From my understanding of the issue, it sounds like a very petty move by MLB!

March Madness starts today and like others, I'll be following the tournament and hope my bracket stays relatively intact through the first two rounds!  Have a great Easter weekend everyone.

As promised, I'm going to weigh in on the signing of David Eckstein and the Troy Glaus for Scott Rolen trade.

Prior to the Eckstein signing, John MacDonald was slated as the opening day shortstop with Marco Scutaro or possibly Russ Adams backing him up.  I'm a fan of Johnny Mac as much as the next guy but I don't think any playoff contender has John MacDonald as their starting shortstop.  The Blue Jays had an opportunity to pick up a player that addressed two needs; the need for a lead-off hitter and an upgrade offensively at shortstop.  David Eckstein fills this role.  He also brings with him some playoff credentials, having won two World Series and also being named the 2006 World Series Most Valuable Player.  I always take the World Series MVP with a grain of salt as all it takes is for one player to get hot during a seven game series to win this award.  For instance, Pat Borders won the 1992 World Series MVP and he can hardly be classified as a superstar.  My only reservation about the Eckstein deal was that at the time this meant the left side of the infield with Troy Glaus and David Eckstein.  Eckstein is not a defensive liability but he's also not a premier defender and is definitely not John MacDonald with the glove.  If you combine this with a broken-down Troy Glaus who forever has trouble with his mobility, I was very concerned with the lack of defense on this side of the infield.  That brings me to the Glaus for Rolen trade.

I have always liked Scott Rolen as a ballplayer so I was thrilled when this trade was made.  Friends of mine who are also Jays fans were skeptical of this trade noting that the Jays were trading one injury-prone slugger for another.  I disagreed with them vehemently.  Yes both players have had injury problems over the past two seasons but Glaus clearly could not be counted on to play anywhere close to 162 games while playing 81 of those games on Rogers Centre turf.  Glaus would battle to stay on the field but he was constantly hobbling around.  Rolen has no problem with his legs, just his shoulder.

At the plate, Glaus has more power than Rolen but he also tends to strike out a lot and his batting average usually hovers around the .250 range.  Rolen's shoulder is a concern here but if he is healthy, has the potential to hit 30 homeruns or more.  Given that and the fact that the Blue Jays have three other batters in their lineup capable of hitting over 30 homeruns each(Wells, Thomas, Rios), giving up some power for a better all around hitter is worth it.  Rolen is also more mobile on the basepaths than Glaus which is an added bonus for a team featuring Frank Thomas.

Defensively, Scott Rolen is a multiple Gold Glove winner and before his injuries was considered one of the top defensive third basemen in the game.  Assuming he stays healthy, there is nothing stopping him from being considered one of the best again.  Glaus was fine defensively if he could get to a ball but his legs limited his mobility.  A Rolen-Eckstein-Hill-Overbay infield has to be considered one of the best defensive infields in the majors. 

So yes, it is clear I feel both these moves were no-brainers for the Blue Jays.

After an extended break from blogging, I've decided to start again.  Lots has happened since the end of the 07 season.  Big news of course was the Mitchell Report and Roger Clemens but I'm sick of hearing about steroids and HGH so I will not write anything on this.  On to actual baseball/Blue Jays related matters!

Despite saying the Blue Jays were going to have a quiet offseason and they were happy with the team as it stood, J.P. Riccardi did make a few moves of significance bringing in David Eckstein and Scott Rolen which I'll discuss in a seperate post.  A number of smaller personnel moves were made by bringing in utility infielder, Marco Scutaro, backup catcher Rod Barajas (thank goodness Rod backed out of the contract with the Jays last year!), and former Blue Jay Shannon Stewart. 

Not all has been quiet on the injury front either.  B.J. Ryan is returning from Tommy John surgery, the question is when will the Jays' closer be ready?  We get our first look at B.J. today as he makes his spring training debut. A.J. Burnett slammed his finger in a car door and sheered off half his fingernail on his right index finger which has resulted in him not being able to throw his curveball in spring training.   For all accounts, he should be ready to go for the season and has been able to pitch effectively thus far without the use of his curveball.  The biggest injury news surfaced this week with Casey Janssen being shelved for the season with a torn labrum.  This injury is a costly one but I don't believe it will have that big of an impact on the Jays' fortunes this season and I will discuss further in a seperate post.

Other issues worth discussing as spring training roles on is who will be the Jays' fifth starter and who is going to play left field?  It looks like Jesse Litsch is the odds on favourite for the fifth starter role with Janssen out for the season.  As for left field, Matt Stairs will be platooning with somebody but will that somebody be Shannon Stewart or Reed Johnson.  There is even talk that the Jays may have both Stewart and Johnson on their opening day roster by carrying one less pitcher. 

I should be putting up more posts regarding the Jays new additions, anything that occurs during spring training and my thoughts on how the team might fare this season.  Being buried in snow in Ottawa all winter, believe me when I say that I can't wait for Opening Day!